Title : Modeling the combined effects of bioclimatic and socioeconomic trends on the past and future dynamics of undernourishment in Benin by 2030
Abstract:
Food and nutritional security remains a central issue for sustainable development in Benin, both because of its socio-economic importance and its implications for social stability and resilience. According to the FAO (2024), nearly 12% of Beninese people remain undernourished. It’s a proportion that has slightly decreased compared to the 2000s, but is still far from the "Zero Hunger" target of Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2). Seeking to analyze the reasons for this poor performance leads to assess the bioclimatic and socio-economic factors of undernourishment. Understanding those determinants is crucial to guiding public policies and achieving food security targets. This article analyzes the prevalence of undernourishment in Benin over two decades, using an ARIMAX(2,0,0) model that integrates bioclimatic variables such as rainfall, temperature, humidity, sunshine, wind, evapotranspiration and socio-economic variables that are HDI, food inflation, proportion of cultivated land, GDP. Those data were found from FAOSTAT dataset. Based on this modeling, projections were made to estimate the evolution up to 2031 of undernourishment prevalence and its determinants. The autoregressive coefficients reveal a complex temporal dynamic. An increase in prevalence in year t-1 tends to be followed by a partial decrease the following year, reflecting a correction mechanism around an average level. A 1% increase in rainfall, relative humidity, sunshine, and a 1 m/s increase in wind speed lead to a decrease in undernourishment of 0.288%, 2.93%, 10.372%, and 1.12%, respectively. From a socioeconomic perspective, the HDI and GDP induce decreases in prevalence of 6.064% and 1.37%, respectively, for a 1% increase in these factors. Food inflation and cultivated areas have marginal effects. A 1% increase in food prices reduces undernourishment by 0.006%, while a 1% increase in agricultural land area raises the prevalence by 0.097%. Simulations based on optimistic scenario, combining climate stability and targeted socio-economic interventions, indicate a gradual and sustained reduction in undernourishment by 2030, through levers leading to a 1.5 percentage point decrease in food inflation, a 1 percentage point increase in the Human Development Index (HDI), a 2% increase in cultivated land area, and the maintenance of a reduced evapotranspiration rate of 0.3% per year. These projections suggest that integrated policies can align Benin with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Ultimately, combating undernourishment requires an intersectoral approach that integrates strengthening human capital and protecting vulnerable households, inclusive growth that supports incomes, adaptation to bio-hydrological and climatic constraints, and effective coordination between agricultural, social, and climate policies.
